Although there is widespread bi-partisan support in both houses for an extension of the Mortgage Debt Relief act, it is still not certain that this act will, in fact, be extended. The reason for this can be found in the figures behind the law. Although we do not have data available to show exactly how much total debt homeowners have been forgiven in the last five years, we do know that the Congressional Budget Office has estimated that allowing the exclusion to expire would generate around $1.3 billion in taxes from affected homeowners. According to Brian Bernardoni, senior director of government and public policy at the Chicago Association of Realtors, this juxtaposition between what is best for homeowners and what is best for a government struggling to combat a huge deficit is what keeps the extension of the Mortgage Debt Relief act in doubt. Bernardoni notes, “This could be one of the unintended consequences of a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff. Singling out any one group for tax relief is going to be difficult.”
There is a bit of the chicken and the egg paradigm at work here. Some lawmakers believe that the health of the overall economy must be considered over the interests of a particular group of citizens or a particular sector of the economy. Others believe that the health of the housing market is so directly tied to the recovery of the economy at large that failure to extend this measure could prove debilitating to the entire recovery effort. Mesirow Financial’s Diane Swonk puts it this way, “Housing is finally showing signs of healing after a prolonged illness...We still have a long way to go, but it has reached a critical shift in momentum, if allowed to continue; the choice is in the hands of our elected officials, and the clock is ticking.”
I will continue to update my readers on the status of all negotiations in Congress, and their potential impact on the housing markets, as those details become available.
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