Prices Continue to Rise in Las Vegas as Foreclosure Freeze Drags On

For several years, Las Vegas made headlines nationwide as the foreclosure capital of the United States.  Now the big news coming out of Las Vegas is the complete lack of foreclosures.  In September of 2012 less than 300 homes were foreclosed upon in the Las Vegas valley.  There are only 375 foreclosures listed for sale on the MLS as of November 15, 2012.  There are 876 short sales listed.  A year ago today, there were approximately 12,000 short sales listed on the MLS!  Great news for homeowners right?  Not really.

At the moment, real estate in Las Vegas is very clearly divided into two groups.  In group #1 are the few foreclosures that are available, short sales, new construction, and certain other properties that can be priced, for one reason or another, at current market value.  These properties are selling...and selling quickly.  United Press recently quoted real estate agent Keith Lynam who said that the problem in Las Vegas is, "There is just zero inventory."  But why?

The answer to this question lies in group #2.  Group #2 is composed of all the homes in Las Vegas that are still “under water.”  With all of the talk of a recovery in the Las Vegas real estate market, it is interesting to note that according to the Las Vegas Sun, 70% of Las Vegas homeowners are still underwater.  In fact, 36% owe more than double what their homes are worth.  These are homes that cannot be sold.  But, because the median sale price of homes in the Las Vegas area has risen almost 20% in the last year, many of these homeowners are holding on...hoping that this small recovery will blossom into a return to the prices of 2007.  Unfortunately, this is extremely unlikely.

During the real estate boom in Las Vegas in the early 2000’s, prices soared to highs well above the steady 3-4% annual growth that real estate typically generates.  As far as prices have fallen since then, surveys show that they’ve really only just about returned to the trend line.  Prices aren’t supposed to be any higher than they are right now.  This point is illustrated by the return of new construction to the Las Vegas housing market.  For several years, new housing starts were virtually non-existent in Las Vegas because foreclosures were selling for less than their replacement value...that is, less than what it would cost to build the same house from scratch.  As prices have risen, new home starts have rebounded because it is now possible for home builders to compete with foreclosures.

The combination of these factors have created a very odd dichotomy in the Las Vegas real estate market.  We have homeowners that are months (or even years) behind in payments but are not being foreclosed upon because of the halt in foreclosures brought on by AB 284 and other factors.  We have homeowners who are buried in debt holding out a desperate hope that the market will once again soar and their homes will no longer be upside down.  We have new homes being built and sold to fill the vacuum of demand created by the fact that 70% of potential Las Vegas real estate is essentially frozen.   It is an interesting paralysis.  

In the midst of this mess, Las Vegas remains very attractive as an investment destination.  For those investors who can secure affordable properties in Las Vegas, these properties are generating great returns and very strong cash flow.  If you are interested in purchasing Las Vegas investment real estate, contact me.  There are ways to beat the crowd using non-traditional buying methods and we specialize in those methods.