Mind the Gap

Mind the Gap

You know you've arrived in London when you step out of the "tube" and hear the oft-looped pleasantry over the loud speakers, "Mind the Gap!" The announcement is referring to the gap between the subway platform and the train. In the current Las Vegas real estate market, we must mind a gap of a different sort. Let me explain.

As a full-time real estate investor and investor agent (of my 80 sales so far this year, only 3 were to owner occupants) I am used to observing market trends first hand in my hometown of Las Vegas. As our market began to reach bottom 6-8 months ago, investor money from all over the country and internationally began flooding back into the valley looking to snatch up bargain priced Las Vegas real estate. For months, it was relatively easy for me to find great REO / bank-owned deals for my visiting investor clients. 85% of my clients were (and are) all cash buyers and I entertain an average of 4-6 investors each weekend. Las Vegas was (and continues to be) the foreclosure capital of the world, and for months REOs were in great supply.

But over the last several months, things have steadily begun to shift. I have had to work harder and harder to find good deals for my clients. I have repeatedly found myself in multiple bid situations and the competition for REO / bank-owned foreclosure properties has begun to drive up prices. September saw the first increase in median home price in Las Vegas in over two years. More and more investors are fighting for the properties that are available and potential owner occupants are becoming increasingly frustrated as banks accept one of the multitude of "sure thing" cash offers that seem to be present at every REO listing.

The reason for this feeding frenzy is simple: Demand is far exceeding supply. In the month of September 2009, nearly 3500 single family homes sold in Las Vegas. By contrast, only around 1800 homes went back to the banks through the foreclosure process. This creates a large "gap" between supply and demand. At first glance, one would think that this gap represents good news for primary residents struggling to sell properties through the "normal" sales process. For the last two years, it has been virtually impossible for normal listings to sell in Las Vegas as they had to compete with the overwhelming numbers of foreclosure properties that were making the market. So now that the supply of foreclosure homes is beginning to slow and the demand for properties is increasing, we should begin to see more homes selling through traditional listings right? Maybe not.

In order to understand this phenomenon, we need to be mindful of another "gap." The gap between the prices of bank-owned foreclosure properties and the prices at which owners can afford to list their homes. Prices have dropped so sharply in the Las Vegas valley over the last three years, that many properties have lost 70% of their value. Homes that were selling for $300,000 in 2004, are coming back on the market as foreclosures now for $110,000. This means that anyone who purchased property in Las Vegas in the last 10 years is probably upside down on their home. Those who purchased 3-5 years ago are drastically upside down.

This gap means that even as demand for property in Las Vegas increases, and supplies of bargain-priced foreclosure / REOs decrease, we are still likely not to see many traditional listings and closings for quite some time. The gap between what is owed on the homes and what the market will pay is just too great. The exception to this might just be the short sale, which is making a comeback as I addressed in my two previous articles.