Mind the Gap

Mind the Gap

You know you've arrived in London when you step out of the "tube" and hear the oft-looped pleasantry over the loud speakers, "Mind the Gap!" The announcement is referring to the gap between the subway platform and the train. In the current Las Vegas real estate market, we must mind a gap of a different sort. Let me explain.

As a full-time real estate investor and investor agent (of my 80 sales so far this year, only 3 were to owner occupants) I am used to observing market trends first hand in my hometown of Las Vegas. As our market began to reach bottom 6-8 months ago, investor money from all over the country and internationally began flooding back into the valley looking to snatch up bargain priced Las Vegas real estate. For months, it was relatively easy for me to find great REO / bank-owned deals for my visiting investor clients. 85% of my clients were (and are) all cash buyers and I entertain an average of 4-6 investors each weekend. Las Vegas was (and continues to be) the foreclosure capital of the world, and for months REOs were in great supply.

But over the last several months, things have steadily begun to shift. I have had to work harder and harder to find good deals for my clients. I have repeatedly found myself in multiple bid situations and the competition for REO / bank-owned foreclosure properties has begun to drive up prices. September saw the first increase in median home price in Las Vegas in over two years. More and more investors are fighting for the properties that are available and potential owner occupants are becoming increasingly frustrated as banks accept one of the multitude of "sure thing" cash offers that seem to be present at every REO listing.

The reason for this feeding frenzy is simple: Demand is far exceeding supply. In the month of September 2009, nearly 3500 single family homes sold in Las Vegas. By contrast, only around 1800 homes went back to the banks through the foreclosure process. This creates a large "gap" between supply and demand. At first glance, one would think that this gap represents good news for primary residents struggling to sell properties through the "normal" sales process. For the last two years, it has been virtually impossible for normal listings to sell in Las Vegas as they had to compete with the overwhelming numbers of foreclosure properties that were making the market. So now that the supply of foreclosure homes is beginning to slow and the demand for properties is increasing, we should begin to see more homes selling through traditional listings right? Maybe not.

In order to understand this phenomenon, we need to be mindful of another "gap." The gap between the prices of bank-owned foreclosure properties and the prices at which owners can afford to list their homes. Prices have dropped so sharply in the Las Vegas valley over the last three years, that many properties have lost 70% of their value. Homes that were selling for $300,000 in 2004, are coming back on the market as foreclosures now for $110,000. This means that anyone who purchased property in Las Vegas in the last 10 years is probably upside down on their home. Those who purchased 3-5 years ago are drastically upside down.

This gap means that even as demand for property in Las Vegas increases, and supplies of bargain-priced foreclosure / REOs decrease, we are still likely not to see many traditional listings and closings for quite some time. The gap between what is owed on the homes and what the market will pay is just too great. The exception to this might just be the short sale, which is making a comeback as I addressed in my two previous articles.

Short Sales vs. REOs

As of September 2009, the nation's supply of REO homes has begun to shrink, even in foreclosure capital Las Vegas, NV. As investors flood back into distressed markets, we are seeing multiple bid situations for most REO or bank-owned foreclosure properties coming back onto the market. With demand exceeding supply, it is becoming harder and harder for investors to purchase REO properties at discount prices. Also, with the Obama administration offering hefty incentives for banks to help homeowners avoid foreclosures, REOs are becoming more scarce. Instead, we are seeing short sales skyrocket in popularity as banks have suddenly become willing to negotiate this option.

Many of my investor clients have asked me to explain the differences between short sales and foreclosures/REOs. First, the definition of each: A short sale occurs when a buyer negotiates with the bank to purchase a home from the seller for less than what the seller owes on the mortgage. In many cases, where the equity in the property has dropped sharply, this means that the second lien holder (if any) receives next to nothing on their note (think $1000 for a $90,000 note as an example) and the first position lender very often must still except less than the amount of the first mortgage. REOs are bank owned properties that have already completed the foreclosures process. The owner of the property, upon failing to make their mortgage payments, has been notified of their delinquency, received a notice of default and then a notice of sale. Subsequently the property has been sent to auction at the trustee sale where, in absence of a successful winning bid, it has reverted back to the bank holding the mortgage. These properties are then re-listed by the banks on the open market as REOs or Real Estate Owned meaning bank owned real estate.

The major differences between the two transactions can be summed up in two categories: Differences to the Buyer and Differences to the Seller.

Differences to the Buyer

Difficulty of Transaction - Short sales are traditionally much more difficult to transact than purchasing an REO. Once a bank has taken possession of a foreclosed property and re-listed it as an REO, that REO property can then have offers placed upon it and the bank will respond to those offers just like any other seller. Short sales must go through a special evaluation and approval process at the bank. This process usually involves not only evaluating the fair market value of the property, but also evaluating the potential of the current owners to continue making their payments. Sometimes, a bank will offer to modify the existing loan if the sellers wish to stay in their property rather than negotiate the short sale. This can result in the property being pulled from the market altogether.

Time Frame for Closing - REOs can often close in a 30 day escrow just like a normal transaction. Short sales can take months to negotiate and then might not be approved at all.

Price - Because the buyer is usually not competing against other offers in a short sale situation, they can often obtain the property for less than what the same property might end up costing as an REO.

Differences to the Seller

Future Home Purchases - Homeowners who go through a foreclosure cannot apply for an FHA loan for 5 years after the date of foreclosure (7 years for investors), but homeowners who complete a short sale can apply for an FHA loan 2 years later. When homeowners apply for a loan through a mortgage company, they must state on the application if they have had a property foreclosed upon or given a deed in lieu of foreclosure within the last 7 years. There are currently no questions on standard mortgage applications asking whether or not a homeowner has ever completed a short sale.

Credit Score - A foreclosure will typically lower a homeowner's credit score by somewhere between 250-300 points and this decrease will last approximately 3 years. Short sales can often affect an owner's credit by only 50 points and that decrease may sometimes be remedied in as little as 12-18 months.

As the supply of REO properties continues to be tight across the country, short sales are presenting a good buying opportunity for would-be investors looking to re-enter the market. They can also provide a win-win situation for home owners looking to escape a negative equity position with less of a hit to their future purchasing potential and credit score.

Trustee's Sale Becomes Best Buying Option as Home Prices Rise in September

As you may know I have been very heavily involved in the Las Vegas real estate market for the last six years, both as a private investor and as a licensed real estate agent. As an agent specializing in undervalued properties, I have sold homes and condos to both owner occupants and investors at great discounts...before and after the bubble burst.

The current Las Vegas market represents one of the greatest buying opportunities that we have ever seen in real estate. Prices have over-corrected as a result of the credit crisis and have come down to levels that are way below builders' costs. We are seeing condos selling at about $35-$45 per square foot and single family homes selling as low as $50 to $60 per square foot. From October of 2007 to May of 2009, the average median home price in Las Vegas fell approximately $10,000 per month...every month. As prices began to stabilize in the summer of 2009, investors realized that a bottom was arriving and began to flood back into the market. This past summer saw record sales volume in the Las Vegas valley. There were over 3700 closes in both June and July, 2009...beating even the previous monthly highs set in the summer of 2004, at the height of the bubble. Of these closings, 45% were cash deals and 40% were to investors (as opposed to owner occupants)...these numbers also exceed the percentages posted in 2004.

This extraordinary demand for great properties at great prices in Las Vegas caused the median home sale price to increase in September...the first increase in the Las Vegas market in over two years. September also saw sales taper off slightly. The general consensus, however, is that this decline is not because of a reduction in demand, but rather because of a drastic reduction in supply. In September only around 1800 homes were returned to bank ownership through the foreclosure process. In contrast, 3358 single family homes sold in this same month. Since almost 70% of all these sales were on foreclosure/REO properties, this represents a situation where more homes are being sold than are coming on to the market. The prices are low, the demand is high and, as a result, prices are starting to creep up on these REO sales. In addition, we are seeing multiple bid situations on almost every REO property that comes up for sale. These circumstances are making finding good deals by buying REO properties very difficult.

The most viable option at this time for acquiring properties below market value is at the trustee’s sale. Once the owner of a property passes his 90 day notice of default period, he is issued a notice of trustee’s sale. After the NOS, or notice of sale, is given, the owner has 21 days to cure the default or the property will be sold to the highest bidder at the trustee’s sale. Buyers at the trustee’s sale in Las Vegas are currently picking up properties for a discount of about 20% under the already heavily discounted REO listings that are setting current market values. For example: If a home sold in 2007 for $300,000, and it is now worth about $100,000 on the REO retail market, it may be picked up at the trustee’s sale for around $80,000. This would represent a buy price of approximately 25 cents on the dollar from the highs of just a few years ago.

I have spent the last several months working with a handful of investors and have made several purchases through the trustee's sale. If you are interested in finding good properties at the best prices in the hottest foreclosure market we have ever seen (and may ever see) please give me a call or shoot me an email and I can go over the details with you. Buying at the trustee's sale represents not only a great opportunity for the buy and hold investor to purchase properties for cash flow, but also represents the only viable opportunity for flip investors in Las Vegas to actually resell a property for a quick flip profit.

Over the last year, many of my clients have asked me about the feasibility of short sales…both from a seller’s perspective, as a way out of an upside down property; and from a buyer’s perspective, as a way to acquire properties below market rate. Up until recently I have advised most of my clients away from short sales…as a buyer or as a seller. The reason was simple: lots of time invested, small chance of success. As a rule, since the housing bubble burst and the credit crunch began, banks have been overwhelmed with defaults and the departments in charge of evaluating and approving short sales have been notoriously slow and inefficient. Trying to negotiate a short sale with the bank often resulted in frustration for all parties involved with a very low success rate.

As a result, I have advised my investor clients to seek out REOs as the best buying opportunity here in Las Vegas. Time, however, are changing. My recent articles on the Las Vegas housing marketing have highlighting the dwindling supply of bank-owned REO properties available. Each month the demand for these REOs and the closings exceed the fresh supply of foreclosed homes coming from the banks. This has resulted in bidding wars across the Las Vegas valley as investors and primary residents eager to capitalize on the best real estate buying opportunity in decades flock to purchase the REOs that make their way on to the market. But with the percentage of homeowners behind on their mortgages still at all time highs, why is the number of foreclosures entering the market declining? The answer may be the increase in short sales.

Brian Wargo of the Las Vegas Sun recently wrote an article discussing this increase in short sales. In it, he quote Larry Murphy, president of the real estate monitoring firm SalesTraq, who says that of the 35,742 closings through the first three quarters of 2009 75% were foreclosures and only 10% were short sales. However, of the 11,249 contingent sales currently in place in Las Vegas, 71% are short sales and only 21% are REOs or foreclosure homes. This represents a dramatic shift in banking policy.

Murphy believes banks are becoming much more willing to consider short sales because they are finally realizing that short sales generate a higher sales price for the banks than REOs. Data supports this. The median price of homes sold through foreclosure is $116,900, while the median price for homes sold through short sales is $150,000.

The federal government has also adopted standardized rules for short sales, simplifying the process. This, combined with the pressure being exerted by the Obama administration to keep homeowners out of foreclosure, is creating a much higher approval rate for short sales. This, in turn, is keeping the flood of foreclosures that we had been expecting here in Las Vegas off the books and creating the progressively lower inventory monthly of bank-owned REO homes.

All-in-all, whether you are a seller looking to get out of an upside down situation or a buyer looking to capitalize on low home prices, now may be a great time to consider the short sale as an option.

To read the entire article in the Las Vegas Sun CLICK HERE

Latest Update-MGM Signature Towers

It has been a little over three months since my last update on the MGM Signature Condos and I wanted to update my readers on the new developments that have been taking place. Those of you who are on my mailing list will have received a spread sheet I produced that details the profitability of a studio unit purchased recently for $150,000. This same unit was selling for $465,000 at its high three years ago. The spreadsheet shows that purchasing the studio unit for $150K, or roughly 32 cents on the dollar, would result in positive cash flow for the new owner.

In crunching the numbers on the MGM Condos, I have come across an interesting anomaly that I would like to share with you: The one bedroom units that are placed into the rental program have historically generated lower occupancy rates than the studios. Yet they cost about twice as much (the new lowest 1 bed sale has been $185,000), the HOA fees are nearly twice as high ($1000 vs. $500 for the studio), and they only rent for about $40 more per night. Potential investors should keep this in mind when considering studios vs. one bedroom units at the MGM Signature Towers. The one bedroom units are getting close to being a good deal for a buyer that is thinking of either living in it, renting it outside of the MGM rental program, or just holding it as a second home. But the one bedrooms are not as attractive as the studios from a pure investment perspective.


So far, the six lowest price studio sales in the entire project have been transactions that I have been able to negotiate for my clients. I was recently able to broker a deal in which one of my investors purchased a bulk bundle of four studio units at what amounted to $118,000 each. The Mountain View studio units are selling for the $120K-140K range and the strip view studios are now selling in the $140K to $180K range. The higher range would include the studios with a patio. The unit I discussed in the first paragraph that originally comped for $465K and recently sold for $150K, was a higher floor studio with a strip view and also a patio.

The inventory remains very light at this time. Currently, there are only 9 bank-owned foreclosures available in the MGM Signature Condos. 8 of them are studio units and one is a one bedroom condo. There are still quite a few short sales in various stages, but we are beginning to see a lot of short sales reverting back to the bank and becoming foreclosures as the short sale process is very slow and agents and banks are often unable to get them approved before the foreclosure happens.

Because of the light inventory of REOs and the difficulty in successfully negotiating short sales, I am beginning to look at the Trustees Sale in order to purchase affordable MGM Signature units for my investors. We are starting to see many studio units being sold at the Trustee Sale for around $120,000. MGM Signature Condos continue to be a great investment opportunity for those looking to acquire properties and utilize a buy and hold strategy. However, the really good news is that if you are looking to buy and flip, there is the opportunity to make $20,000-$50,000 per condo in a two month period through purchasing MGM Signature units at the Trustees Sale. If you are interested in this opportunity, please contact me for more details.

Mayor Goodman Speaks at Hugely Successful Meeting

Over 100 people pre-paid to attend the October meeting of the Las Vegas Real Estate Insider Club in the conference room on the top floor of the Newport Lofts in downtown Las Vegas. Club founder Glenn Plantone welcomed Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman as the keynote speaker for this special event. Unfortunately, due to space constraints, event workers had to turn quite a few folks away at the door who had not pre-registered. After indulging several attendees looking for photo opportunities, Mayor Goodman took the floor around 7pm in front of a packed house. The mayor, famous for his career as the high-profile defense attorney for the Las Vegas mob, entertained the crowd with colorful stories of ex-clients and his penchant for the movie business. (If you ever meet Mayor Goodman, be sure to ask him about his requirement that all film producers looking to make a movie in Las Vegas create a part for Oscar in the movie...or they don't get a permit to make the film.) Mayor Goodman also discussed important developments occurring in the downtown Las Vegas area including the construction of the Lou Ruvo memorial brain center which is now underway. This institute, which will be managed by the Cleveland Clinic, will bring world class academic medicine to Las Vegas. Mayor Goodman stressed the importance of bringing academic medicine and superior health facilities to Las Vegas if the city is to continue its growth. The Mayor also touched on another important pre-requisite for a first rate American city: a professional sports team. According to Mayor Goodman, an arena and sports complex is in the works that will hopefully house an NBA basketball team within the next two to three years. Mayor Goodman expressed continued optimism over the possiblility of a realitively quick recovery for the Las Vegas housing market, stressing the assets that will help strengthen the local economy and encourage continued vitality in the market over the next several months and years.

After Mayor Goodman finished addressing the crowd, Glenn gave a short presentation detailing the current state of the Las Vegas housing market. He gave an in depth look at the number of sales in the preceeding five months vs. the number of foreclosures being added to inventory. Since the vast majority of sales closing in the Las Vegas valley continue to be REO or bank owned properties, Glenn pointed out that the number of SFRs currently available is not nearly so important to consider as the number of foreclosures being added to the market as REO listings on a monthly basis. Glenn's observation was that with the number of sales remaining consistently high since June, but the number of foreclosures steadily declining, we are actually facing a shortage situation in the market. There are more people looking to purchase low-priced REO homes than there are homes to sell them. Glenn estimates that the actual standing inventory of SFRs in Las Vegas currently represents only a two to three WEEK supply. This explains why investors and Realtors have faced multiple offer, bid-type situations as they attempt to purchase homes in the past several months. As REO inventory continues to decline, Glenn has found that a shift in direction is now required in order to provide his investor clients with the continued ability to purchase quality investment properties without having the price bid up to levels incompatible with strong cash flow. This shift in direction has led him to the Trustee Sales. By attending Trustee Sales on behalf of his clients, he has been able to successfully purchase properties for his clients at prices substantially below fair market value. If you are interested in purchasing properties utilizing the Trustee Sale, please contact Glenn at (702) 938-8888.

Glenn was followed by a presentation from Tamara Bostrom of Spiral Digital Media. Tamara discussed internet marketing for Web 3.0. As the internet has grown and consumers interaction with the web has increased to multiple events daily, it has become increasingly difficult for professionals to stand out on the web. Tamara discussed the need for Realtors, mortgage brokers, insurance agents and all other professionals to find a "niche" for themselves within this broader marketplace. She also discussed the success Spiral has created for their clients using content driven marketing. Content driven marketing is based around the concept of creating educational material within a client's niche and distributing this content as widely as possible on the web. This helps to establish the client as an expert within his or her field and results in potential customers coming to the client for help, rather than the client having to pursue potential customers. If you are interested in learning how Spiral Digital Marketing can use this unique internet marketing strategy to help generate leads for you, please contact them at (435) 652-9595.

Mike Lathigee closed the meeting by discussing how broader, macro-economic trends can affect local and national real estate markets. Mike's investment group, Alliance, specializes in identifying and acting on these trends that create buying and selling opportunities. Mike then presented a unique opportunity for all REIC club members to attend Investfest 2010 for only $1. This year, Investfest will host the youngest billionaire in Europe as well as many other speakers discussing how to generate wealth in real estate and other markets. If you are interested in attending Investfest 2010 for $1, please contact Glenn at gsplantone@gmail.com

Upcoming Nicaraguan Investment Conference

My friend and colleague, Kevin Fleming recently shared with me a project he is involved with in Nicaragua. I have endorsed some of Kevin's deals in the past and this one looks like it has potential. Costa Rica and Panama have offered great appreciation over the last ten years and it looks like Nicaragua might be the next play in the Central American real estate market. I am including some details below. If you are interested, contact me and I will get you in touch with Kevin.

In celebration of the release of Phase 2 at Seaside Mariana Spa & Golf Resort and the amazing new investment-friendly progress within the country of Nicaragua, Grupo Mariana Family of Resorts is proud to host “Nicaraguan Abundance: Live, Invest and Grow,” December 3-6 at the Intercontinental Hotel in Managua, Nicaragua.

“Nicaraguan Abundance: Live, Invest and Grow” is a three-day business and culture immersion conference tailored for the savvy real estate investor. We will guide you through exactly what you need to know to successfully invest and do business in Nicaragua, allow ample time to network with colleagues, and then be your personal hosts for a day immersed in the sunshine and culture of the New Nicaragua.

You'll meet a select group of real estate professionals already living and working in the Nicaragua…You’ll check out great places to live…You'll get all of your questions answered about investment in Nicaragua…

• You learn about opportunities for the forward thinking investor
• You’ll learn more information about our Joint Venture Offerings
• You’ll find out how you can buy real estate in your IRA, 401 (K) or other
qualified retirement plans
• You’ll learn about title insurance and meet approved Nicaraguan Law Firms
from First American Title Insurance Company and Stewart Title Guarantee.
• You’ll meet members of the Grupo Mariana Development Team
• You'll learn how you can get involved in the country that many are calling
the next Costa Rica.
• You'll learn how you can participate in fascinating business opportunities
available in one of Central America's fastest growing countries.
• You'll discover how you can earn potentially stratospheric returns on
pristine, pure beachfront real estate.
• You'll see how you can enjoy a tropical lifestyle for far less than you'd
spend at home.
• And many other details...